Black Friday 2025. Here is what really matters.
- IO Advisory
- Nov 20, 2025
- 9 min read
Updated: Dec 18, 2025
TLDR
Amazon’s Black Friday (Nov 20 to Dec 1) is now a 12-day algorithm event that determines your Q1 ranking. Brands that participate acquire customers at the lowest cost, capture competitor traffic, and build momentum the algorithm carries into January. Those who skip lose visibility when it matters most. Success hinges on clean price history, the right deal mechanics, stable velocity, and precise product roles.
Case study: a premium skincare brand whose €45 serum can either lock in top 3 for January or fall to page 2 depending on execution.
Why you must join
Black Friday is Amazon’s single biggest customer acquisition moment. Participating gives you clear advantages:
Lowest cost-per-acquisition: Traffic surges make ads and deals more efficient, acquiring new buyers at minimal spend.
Win competitors’ shoppers: Deal hunters switch brands during the event, letting you capture high-intent customers.
Build high-lifetime-value audiences: Early engagement with deeper discounts creates retargetable cohorts and drives repeat purchases into Q1.
Generate algorithmic momentum: Sustained sales velocity boosts organic ranking, Buy Box eligibility, and visibility into January.
For CPG brands, three factors matter:
1. Margin structure
Can you discount 20-25% and maintain >20% contribution margin?
Our skincare brand:
Regular price: €45, COGS: €16, Variables: €7
Regular margin: 49%
At 25% discount (€33.75): 32% margin
They can afford it. A brand with 18% regular margin cannot.
2. Product lifecycle
Products <6 months old: Don't participate. You haven't established baseline pricing yet. Products >3 years in decline: Aggressive Black Friday clears inventory before discontinuation.
Our serum: 14 months old, growth phase. Good timing.
3. Competitive positioning
If your 3 main competitors discount 30-40%, you need to participate defensively. You're preventing customer defection, not acquiring new customers.
Our brand's competitors (premium mass) all participate. Sitting out would hand market share to competitors for 6 months.
The event structure has changed
Amazon's Black Friday is now a 12-day event running November 20-December 1, 2025. This isn't just more days of sales. It changes how Amazon's algorithm evaluates product performance.
Your product's sales velocity during this window creates algorithmic momentum (or drag) that persists for 6-8 weeks after the event ends. Stock out on day 4, and you don't just lose days 4-12 of sales. You lose the algorithmic tailwind that drives January-February organic ranking.
For a premium skincare brand selling a €45 serum, this means the difference between maintaining top-3 category position (€180k January revenue) versus dropping to page 2 (€45k January revenue). The Black Friday execution determines Q1 trajectory, not just event week numbers.
The 30-Day price history issue
Prime Exclusive pricing requirements changed for 2025. The rules are now stricter and vary by marketplace:
Germany (and UK/NL): 15% discount on reference price required
France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Poland, Ireland: 5% discount on the lowest price in the past 30 days OR minimum absolute discount (€40 in most EU markets)
All marketplaces: Must be 5% below the lowest net price (after all promotions, including coupons) in the past 30 days
This last requirement is new for 2025 and catches most brands off guard. Your Black Friday discount must be 5% lower than any promotional price—not just list price—in the 30-day window before the event.
If you ran a 15% coupon in October, your Black Friday discount must be at least 20% to clear the 5% threshold below that October promotional price.
Premium skincare example:
A €45 serum normally sells 150 units/day. Regular promotions:
October 15: 10% coupon (€40.50 net price after coupon)
November 1: 12% flash sale (€39.60 net price)
For Black Friday, they plan 20% off (€36 net price). This clears the 15% reference price requirement (assuming €45 reference). But €36 is only 9.1% below the €39.60 October net price—fails the 5% threshold.
Minimum required: €39.60 × 0.95 = €37.62 or lower. They need at least 16.4% off their regular €45 price to qualify.
The fix: No promotions from October 29 onward. Clean 30-day window.
Additional requirement: 3.5+ star rating with minimum 5 reviews. Products below this threshold are automatically disqualified regardless of pricing.
The cost of missing Prime Exclusive status: 150 units/day × 10× multiplier × 12 days × 40% traffic loss × €18 margin = €129,600 in lost contribution margin.
Because of a 10% coupon in October.
BSR algorithm behavior during extended events
Amazon's Best Sellers Rank updates hourly, but the algorithm treats extended promotional events differently than single-day spikes. It applies a "promotional velocity discount" to prevent manipulation. Sales during deep discounts count for less in BSR calculations than organic sales.
A product selling 1,000 units/day at 30% off doesn't generate the same algorithmic weight as selling 300 units/day at full price. The algorithm handicaps promotional volume.
Why this matters:
Our skincare brand maintains BSR #150 in Beauty at normal velocity (150 units/day). During Black Friday, they sell 1,200 units/day and reach BSR #45.
Post-event, two paths:
Path A: 25% contribution margin during event, sustained advertising post-event, velocity stabilizes at 180 units/day. BSR settles at #120 (better than baseline). Algorithm sees stable growth.
Path B: 10% contribution margin during event, no post-event advertising budget, velocity crashes to 90 units/day. BSR drops to #280 (worse than baseline). Algorithm sees unsustainable spike.
Q1 revenue difference: €135,000.
The discount depth during Black Friday determines whether you're building algorithmic momentum or borrowing it.
Amazon Black Friday deal economics
Amazon offers three main deal types for Black Friday 2025. Economics, visibility and algorithmic impact differ; choose based on catalog structure and product role.
Prime Exclusive Discount (PED)
Fee: €70 per parent ASIN (charged only if ≥1 unit sells)
Duration: Full 12-day event
Visibility: Prime badge on product page and search
Targeting: Prime members only
Best for: Sustained, consistent velocity across the event
Best Deal
Fee: €190 for Black Friday/Cyber Monday
Duration: Full event or custom window
Visibility: Prominent placement on Deals page
Targeting: All customers
Best for: Maximum traffic and broad reach
Lightning Deal
Fee: €70 for Black Friday/Cyber Monday
Duration: 4–6 hours (up to 24 hours)
Visibility: Featured placement with countdown urgency
Targeting: All customers
Best for: High-ticket or consideration items where urgency converts
2025 Fee Change and Economics
PEDs are charged per parent ASIN, increasing costs for multi-SKU catalogs.
Example: 8 parent ASINs → 8 × €70 = €560
Break-even (per ASIN):
€70 / (€65 × 0.35 × 0.40) ≈ 7.7 incremental orders
For 8 ASINs: 62 incremental orders total.
With 1,200 expected units during the week, you need ≈5.2% lift to justify the €560 investment.
Performance and Product Strategy
Lightning Deals generate sharp, temporary spikes (3–4× hourly velocity) but minimal long-term BSR benefit.
PEDs deliver steady lift (1.5–2× daily) over 12 days, building stronger post-event ranking. Amazon’s algorithm downweighs short-lived surges; sustained velocity drives January performance.
Product-Level Example
Serum (€45): PED for 12 days to build Q1 momentum
Face oil (€120): Lightning Deal on Black Friday to convert consideration buyers
Combined cost: €350
Expected incremental margin: €15,000
The advantage comes from matching deal types to product economics, not from a single universal approach.
Reference price architecture
Prime Exclusive pricing requirements for Germany require 15% off reference price AND 5% below the lowest net promotional price in the past 30 days. Smart brands engineer their reference pricing months in advance, but the new 5% net price rule adds complexity.
Setup for our serum:
August: List at €52 (establish reference price, actually sell some volume at this price)
September-October: Sell at €45 (List: €52, Regular: €45)
November 1-19: No promotions (clean window)
Black Friday: €37 net price (28.8% off list, clears both 15% reference requirement and 5% net price threshold)
This satisfies:
15% off reference price (€52 × 0.85 = €44.20; selling at €37 clears this)
5% below any net promotional price in past 30 days (clean window = no promotions to compare against)
3.5+ star rating with 5+ reviews
The mistake most make: setting list price equal to regular price, eliminating flexibility. Or running October promotions that create the 5% net price hurdle.
The risk: Amazon monitors reference price manipulation. You need legitimate transaction history at the list price, not just setting a number you never sell at. Our brand should sell at €52 for 2-3 weeks in August.
Product roles that drive Black Friday performance
Black Friday works only if every product has a job.
Acquisition product
Deep discounts to win high-repeat customers, typically via Prime Exclusive or Best Deal.
Example: €45 serum discounted 20% to bring first-time buyers into Q1.
Hero product
Moderate discounts defend category share and prevent switching.
Example: €120 face oil at 10–15% off maintains visibility against competitors.
Margin product
Light or no discount to stabilize profitability while others acquire.
Example: €200 night cream sold at list preserves margin even as traffic spikes elsewhere.
This product-level clarity ensures inventory, pricing, and post-event momentum align with strategic goals before campaigns launch.
Advertising strategy: Critical timing
Start early: Launch campaigns at least 2 weeks before Black Friday; ideally 4 weeks. Begin by November 6 to gather learning data. Even underperforming campaigns provide algorithmic signals before the traffic surge.
Bidding: Increase bids 10–30% during the event. Monitor daily. Expect CPCs to rise 40–70% at peak.
Budget: Ensure budgets absorb higher click volume. Front-load 60% of weekly spend to Thursday–Saturday and allocate 30% to Friday alone. If budget caps mid-day you lose traffic and sales.
Stability: Do not change systems last minute. New keywords lack history and can burn budget without proving ROI.
Post-event momentum management
Black Friday ends December 1 (Cyber Monday). But the algorithmic impact runs through mid-January.
Typical velocity pattern:
December 2-8: Drop 40-60% versus event week
December 9-15: Further 20-30% decline
December 16-22: Holiday bump (20-30%)
December 23-29: Drop 40%
January 2-15: Lowest velocity of year (60-70% below baseline)
The mistake: Brands cut advertising December 2 because "the event is over."
What happens: BSR declines immediately. By January 2, they've lost 3-4 months of momentum. Recovery takes until March.
Alternative approach:
Our skincare brand allocated €50,000 for Black Friday advertising. Structure:
November 20-December 1: €35,000 (peak event)
December 2-8: €8,000 (prevent crash)
December 9-22: €5,000 (maintain threshold)
December 23-January 15: €2,000 (minimum)
The incremental €15,000 post-event spend generates €8,000 in direct December revenue (underwater on that spend). But it preserves BSR position that drives €140,000 in incremental Q1 organic revenue.
This is why CFOs struggle with Amazon. The cause-effect lag makes it invisible to monthly P&L analysis.
Inventory planning for heterogeneous demand
Standard safety stock formulas fail during extended windows because demand variance compounds daily. Extended events have heterogeneous velocity:
Days 1-3 (Thu-Sat, Nov 20-22): 8-10× multiplier
Days 4-6 (Sun-Tue, Nov 23-25): 4-6× multiplier
Days 7-9 (Wed-Fri, Nov 26-28): 12-15× multiplier (peak Friday)
Days 10-12 (Sat-Mon, Nov 29-Dec 1): 6-8× multiplier (Cyber Monday)
Daily demand model:
Our brand needs:
Days 1-3: 1,200 units/day × 3 = 3,600
Days 4-6: 750 units/day × 3 = 2,250
Days 7-9: 1,800 units/day × 3 = 5,400
Days 10-12: 1,050 units/day × 3 = 3,150
Total: 14,400 units + 20% buffer = 17,280 units
At €45 sale price, €16 COGS, this is €276,480 in inventory capital.
The risk decision:
Option A: Stock 17,280 units. Risk: €45,000 excess inventory if demand disappoints.
Option B: Stock 12,000 units. Risk: Stockout day 8-9, losing peak Friday.
Financially conservative: Option B.
Strategically correct: Option A.
Stockout during peak Friday costs:
Lost sales: 1,800 units × 2 days × €16.20 margin = €58,320
BSR crater and recovery: ~€85,000 lost Q1 organic revenue
Total: €143,320
Excess inventory risk: €45,000
Over-inventory by 30% beats under-inventory by 15%. But the €45,000 excess cost hits Q4 cash immediately. The €143,320 stockout cost diffuses across December-February and never gets attributed to the November stockout.
Executive alignment is needed before the event, not during it.
The Q1 implication
Black Friday execution isn't about Black Friday revenue. It's about Q1 positioning.
Products that maintain BSR through December-January enter February with:
30-40% higher organic visibility
15-20% lower CPC (better quality scores)
Improved Buy Box eligibility
Our brand's comparison:
Correct execution:
Event revenue: €180,000 (margin: €63,000)
Q1 incremental organic: €220,000 (margin: €108,000)
Total value: €171,000
Poor execution (discount too deep, stockout day 4, cut ads December 2):
Event revenue: €95,000 (margin: €19,000)
Q1 organic delta: -€85,000 versus baseline
Total value: -€66,000
Black Friday week is the mechanism that determines Q1-Q2 trajectory. This belongs in executive strategy discussions, not just with the Amazon team.
What matters now
Black Friday Week started today. If you haven't prepared, the window for optimization has closed. But understanding what went right or wrong this year determines how you approach 2026.
During the event (Today through December 1):
Monitor BSR hourly, not daily. Amazon's algorithm updates constantly, and sudden changes indicate either stockout risk or advertising effectiveness issues.
Track inventory in days of coverage, not absolute units. If you're selling 1,200 units/day and have 6,000 remaining, you have 5 days of coverage. If peak Friday is tomorrow, you're at risk.
Watch for Prime Exclusive eligibility issues. If traffic is significantly lower than expected, check if your discount still qualifies under the 30-day price history rule.
Post-event (December 2 onward):
The real test starts December 2. Brands that cut advertising immediately will see BSR crater within 48-72 hours. The damage compounds through January.
Budget authority needs to extend through January 15, not December 1. The cause-effect lag makes Q1 impact invisible to monthly P&L analysis.
Document everything. What worked, what didn't, and most importantly—what did your 30-day price history look like going into the event? That data determines your 2026 Black Friday eligibility from day one.
Black Friday execution determines Q1-Q2 trajectory. Next year's planning starts with this year's post-mortem.
Disclaimer
All data and calculations in this article are simplified for illustration purposes. Actual results depend on each company’s product mix, margins, service levels, and supply chain structure.
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